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Sea level rise (SLR) may impose substantial economic costs to coastal communities worldwide, but characterizing its global impact remains challenging because SLR costs depend heavily on natural characteristics and human investments at each location – including topography, the spatial distribution of assets, and local adaptation decisions. To date, several impact models have been developed to estimate the global costs of SLR. Yet, the limited availability of open-source and modular platforms that easily ingest up-to-date socioeconomic and physical data sources restricts the ability of existing systems to incorporate new insights transparently. In this paper, we present a modular, open-source platform designed to address this need, providing end-to-end transparency from global input data to a scalable least-cost optimization framework that estimates adaptation and net SLR costs for nearly 10 000 global coastline segments and administrative regions. Our approach accounts both for uncertainty in the magnitude of global mean sea level (g.m.s.l.) rise and spatial variability in local relative sea level rise. Using this platform, we evaluate costs across 230 possible socioeconomic and SLR trajectories in the 21st century. According to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR6), g.m.s.l. is likely to rise during the 21st century by 0.40–0.69 m if late-century warming reaches 2 ∘C and by 0.58–0.91 m with 4 ∘C of warming (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). With no forward-looking adaptation, we estimate that annual costs of sea level rise associated with a 2 ∘C scenario will likely fall between USD 1.2 and 4.0 trillion (0.1 % and 1.2 % of GDP, respectively) by 2100, depending on socioeconomic and sea level rise trajectories. Cost-effective, proactive adaptation would provide substantial benefits, lowering these values to between USD 110 and USD 530 billion (0.02 and 0.06 %) under an optimal adaptation scenario. For the likely SLR trajectories associated with 4 ∘C warming, these costs range from USD 3.1 to 6.9 trillion (0.3 % and 2.0 %) with no forward-looking adaptation and USD 200 billion to USD 750 billion (0.04 % to 0.09 %) under optimal adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that deeply uncertain physical processes like marine ice cliff instability could drive substantially higher global sea level rise, potentially approaching 2.0 m by 2100 in very high emission scenarios. Accordingly, we also model the impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 m g.m.s.l. rises by 2100; the associated annual cost estimates range from USD 11.2 to 30.6 trillion (1.2 % and 7.6 %) under no forward-looking adaptation and USD 420 billion to 1.5 trillion (0.08 % to 0.20 %) under optimal adaptation. Our modeling platform used to generate these estimates is publicly available in an effort to spur research collaboration and support decision-making, with segment-level physical and socioeconomic input characteristics provided at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7693868 (Bolliger et al., 2023a) and model results at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7693869 (Bolliger et al., 2023b). 

Abstract The ability of animals to sync the timing and location of molting (the replacement of hair, skin, exoskeletons or feathers) with peaks in resource availability has important implications for their ecology and evolution. In migratory birds, the timing and location of pre-migratory feather molting, a period when feathers are shed and replaced with newer, more aerodynamic feathers, can vary within and between species. While hypotheses to explain the evolution of intraspecific variation in the timing and location of molt have been proposed, little is known about the genetic basis of this trait or the specific environmental drivers that may result in natural selection for distinct molting phenotypes. Here we take advantage of intraspecific variation in the timing and location of molt in the iconic songbird, the Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) to investigate the genetic and ecological drivers of distinct molting phenotypes. Specifically, we use genome-wide genetic sequencing in combination with stable isotope analysis to determine population genetic structure and molting phenotype across thirteen breeding sites. We then use genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) to identify a suite of genes associated with molting and pair this with gene-environment association analysis (GEA) to investigate potential environmental drivers of genetic variation in this trait. Associations between genetic variation in molt-linked genes and the environment are further tested via targeted SNP genotyping in 25 additional breeding populations across the range. Together, our integrative analysis suggests that molting is in part regulated by genes linked to feather development and structure (GLI2andCSPG4) and that genetic variation in these genes is associated with seasonal variation in precipitation and aridity. Overall, this work provides important insights into the genetic basis and potential selective forces behind phenotypic variation in what is arguably one of the most important fitness-linked traits in a migratory bird. 

Abstract Studies of stream macroinvertebrates traditionally use sampling methods that target benthic habitats. These methods could underestimate biodiversity if important assemblage components exist outside of the benthic zone. To test the efficacy of different sampling methods, we collected paired reach‐wide benthic and edge samples from up to 10 study reaches in nine basins spanning an aridity gradient across the United States. Edge sampling targeted riparian‐adjacent microhabitats not typically sampled, including submerged vegetation, roots, and overhanging banks. We compared observed richness, asymptotic richness, and assemblage dissimilarity between benthic samples alone and different combinations of benthic and edge samples to determine the magnitude of increased diversity and assemblage dissimilarity values with the addition of edge sampling. We also examined how differences in richness and assemblage composition varied across an aridity gradient. The addition of edge sampling significantly increased observed richness (median increase = 29%) and asymptotic richness (median increase = 173%). Similarly, median Bray–Curtis dissimilarity values increased by as much as 0.178 when benthic and edge samples were combined. Differences in richness metrics were generally higher in arid basins, but assemblage dissimilarity either increased or decreased across the aridity gradient depending on how benthic and edge samples were combined. Our results suggest that studies that do not sample stream edges may significantly underestimate reach diversity and misrepresent assemblage compositions, with effects that can vary across climates. We urge researchers to carefully consider sampling methods in field studies spanning climatic zones and the comparability of existing data sets when conducting data synthesis studies. 

Key Points We compared tools for describing streamflow timeseries, including streamflow metrics, wavelet, and Fourier analysis Each method indicated streamflow data are structured: variability at short timescales is negatively correlated with long timescales Globally, dams were less correlated with streamflow regime than catchment size and climate were 

Water scarcity during severe droughts has profound hydrological and ecological impacts on rivers. However, the drying dynamics of river surface extent during droughts remains largely understudied. Satellite remote sensing enables surveys and analyses of rivers at fine spatial resolution by providing an alternative to in-situ observations. This study investigates the seasonal drying dynamics of river extent in California where severe droughts have been occurring more frequently in recent decades. Our methods combine the use of Landsat-based Global Surface Water (GSW) and global river bankful width databases. As an indirect comparison, we examine the monthly fractional river extent (FrcSA) in 2071 river reaches and its correlation with streamflow at co-located USGS gauges. We place the extreme 2012–2015 drought into a broader context of multi-decadal river extent history and illustrate the extraordinary change between during- and post-drought periods. In addition to river extent dynamics, we perform statistical analyses to relate FrcSA with the hydroclimatic variables obtained from the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) model simulation. Results show that Landsat provides consistent observation over 90% of area in rivers from March to October and is suitable for monitoring seasonal river drying in California. FrcSA reaches fair (>0.5) correlation with streamflow except for dry and mountainous areas. During the 2012–2015 drought, 332 river reaches experienced their lowest annual mean FrcSA in the 34 years of Landsat history. At a monthly scale, FrcSA is better correlated with soil water in more humid areas. At a yearly scale, summer mean FrcSA is increasingly sensitive to winter precipitation in a drier climate; and the elasticity is also reduced with deeper ground water table. Overall, our study demonstrates the detectability of Landsat on the river surface extent in an arid region with complex terrain. River extent in catchments of deficient water storage is likely subject to higher percent drop in a future climate with longer, more frequent droughts.